Saturday, October 18, 2008

Why McCain May Still Win

I hate to tell you this, but the American people, may not be ready for a black, well-spoken, intellectual, President. Admittedly, the economic crises we are facing is making some who would otherwise never even consider an Obama vote second-guess. But in the end, Americans in general are uneducated, and risk averse. My prediction, is that many people of a conservative nature, who out of desperation have leaned towards Obama during the last three weeks, will drift back towards McCain, simply because, that is what they know. Many Americans claim they want change, but when ultimately, they have to vote on it, they will chicken out.

If McCain wins, pundits will wonder how a candidate can win every debate, run a superior campaign, and ultimately lose. Ultimately, it will show more about the American people and their ideosyncracies than it will about any other factor. Let's face the facts, most Americans believe in a world that is less than 10,000 years old, still believe that Adam and Eve were the progenitors of all humans and have great reservations about science as a means of discovering truth relative to revelation as documented in scripture.

As a country, we are only as good as our citizens are. We cannot expect reasonable voting patterns, when reason is eschewed for myth and superstition in most aspects of American lives. How people think will determine how people vote. Appealing to reason in this country is like trying to look at a nebula with a microscope. For those of us liberals who look at polls and think, just maybe, reason may prevail, I still wonder, can it really. Maybe I'm a pessimist. Perhaps I've been conditioned by having been on the losing side so many times in this blindly conservative state.

But part of what I've learned, is that many Americans would rather suffer, than learn from their mistakes. If Obama wins, it will be closer than rational people will suspect, but I still think McCain, despite his erratic and angry demeanor, may still carry the day. And what it will say about America, is that they are no longer reliable as an ally, and formidable as a foe. For they have abandoned the real world, and are living in a mythical fairy land. And though their weapons are formidable, their dogma is but a shallow shell of contradictions and platitudes. The world still holds out hope that someon with the capacity to reason such as Obama may prevail in the world's only superpower. I also share that hope. But my confidence in the American voter, isn't all that great. Most Americans still believe Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9/11 and think Iraq had stockpiles of WMD. These people will vote in November. Obama's election as President would be an absolute miracle.

3 comments:

Allie said...

Oh come on! I've just started having a tiny bit of hope.

:)

just-commenting said...

I am hopeful that those who cannot bring themselves to vote for a democrat or a non-white person when they do vote will be sufficiently offset by some of those who cannot bring themselves to state out loud when they are polled that they would vote that way, but then when they are in the privacy of the voting booth will do what they swore that they never would. That could get some votes for Obama that the pollsters have not counted.

Now that is a long sentence, but perhaps the moment of truth may to some degree cut both ways in having people vote differently than what they express out loud when polled.

I remain guardedly hopeful.

Jeremy said...

Obi Wan,

I agree with you that it will be closer than most pundits are calling it. I disagree with your contention that a win for McCain says anything worse about Americans than what a win for Obama would say. If you look at what both candidates have promised Americans, two insane grab bags of new government programs and foolishness, it is clear that a win for either major party candidate means Americans don't deserve the liberty, progress, and virtue our forbears have passed down to us.

America came out of this election looking pretty damn awful long before the primaries were even finished.